Orrin PAC's Blog

Glen Bolger over at Public Opinion Strategies' Turning Questions Into Answers blog reports that Republicans now hold a sizable lead in the generic ballot in the latest NPR poll:

For the first time since June 2003, the Republican candidate has a five point lead on the generic ballot in a new survey conducted for NPR by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner and Associates. The Republican candidate has a 44%-39% advantage.

(The analysis of the data in this article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of NPR or GQR.)

In 2008, the Dems won the generic ballot by eight points. To have a thirteen point shift in just over one year is a remarkable shift in the political environment. The GOP lead is bolstered by a twelve point advantage among Independents. The caveat for Republicans, however, is that 40% of Independents are undecided. Thus, they are still up for grabs.